Learn Expected Credit Loss Modelling

Expected Credit Loss (ECL) often feels confusing because it sits at the intersection of regulation, credit intuition, and modelling.

This program is designed to make ECL clear, practical, and usable.

Over two weekends (4 live sessions, 3 hours each), we go from zero to a fully working ECL model in Excel, built step by step. You’ll understand not just what the formulas are, but why they exist and how risk teams actually think about ECL.

No coding. No heavy statistics. Just careful thinking and clean logic.

Who Can Take This Course

You do not need a finance or accounting background.

If you can work comfortably in Excel and are willing to think through concepts carefully, you can do this course.

This program is especially useful for:

  • Students and job seekers entering BFSI, risk, or analytics roles

  • Credit analysts, underwriters, and risk professionals

  • Portfolio, collections, or strategy teams who want ECL clarity

  • Anyone who has heard terms like PD, LGD, EAD, Stage 2, SICR and wants them to finally make sense

What You’ll Walk Away With

By the end of the program, you will have:

  • A clear understanding of Ind AS 109 / IFRS 9 ECL logic and staging

  • A complete, editable Excel ECL model
    (PD–LGD–EAD, discounting, staging, and macro overlays)

  • A concise ECL eBook you can revisit anytime

  • The confidence to explain ECL clearly in interviews, meetings, and real work settings

This is not a demo file. You will build a real model that you can reuse and adapt.

Format

  • Total duration: 12 hours live

  • Structure: 4 sessions × 3 hours each

  • Delivery: Live on Google Meet

Each session includes:

  • Concept explanation (plain language, no jargon)

  • Guided Excel build

  • Discussion and Q&A

Course Curriculum

Day 1: ECL Foundations and Ind AS 109 Logic

  • Why ECL exists and what changed from incurred loss

  • Ind AS 109 / IFRS 9 overview (practical, not legalistic)

  • Stage 1, 2, and 3 explained simply

  • SICR: what it really means and common approaches

  • Default definitions, cures, and backstops

  • PD, LGD, EAD and discounting: the building blocks

  • How auditors and risk teams actually look at ECL

Excel work: Model skeleton and assumptions structure

Day 2: PD Modelling from Scratch (Including Macro Overlays)

  • Why PD is not a single number

  • 12-month vs lifetime PD

  • Practical PD approaches:

    • vintage / cohort logic

    • delinquency and roll-rate intuition

    • transition matrix (step by step)

  • Converting annual PD to monthly PD

  • PD movement and staging logic

Macro overlays

  • What “forward-looking” really means

  • Baseline / upside / downside scenarios

  • Scenario weights and documentation

Excel work: PD curves + scenario overlay block

Day 3: LGD and EAD That Reflect Real Loss Economics

  • What LGD actually represents

  • Secured vs unsecured LGD logic

  • Recovery cashflows and time-to-recovery

  • Discounting recoveries and why it matters

  • EAD fundamentals:

    • amortisation logic

    • prepayment intuition

    • term vs revolving exposures

Excel work: EAD schedules + LGD with discounted recoveries

Day 4: Full ECL Engine and Sanity Checks

  • Putting it all together:
    PD × LGD × EAD × discount factor

  • Stage-wise ECL:

    • Stage 1 (12-month)

    • Stage 2 (lifetime)

    • Stage 3 (conceptual treatment)

  • Scenario-weighted ECL

  • Model sanity checks:

    • what outputs should look like

    • common mistakes

    • what “smells wrong”

  • How to present your model to:

    • a manager

    • a credit committee

    • an interviewer

Excel work: End-to-end working ECL model with outputs

Tools Used

  • Excel only

  • No coding

  • No statistical software

The goal is clarity first. Once the logic is clear, modelling becomes natural.

Course Fee

  • ₹10,000 + GST (18%)

  • Includes:

    • All live sessions

    • The ECL eBook

    • The final working Excel model

A proper tax invoice will be provided.
If your employer is sponsoring the course, the invoice can be issued in the company’s name.

One-on-One Coaching (Optional)

If you want personalised help:

  • building ECL for your own portfolio

  • reviewing your existing model

  • preparing for interviews or role transitions

1-on-1 coaching is available on request.
These sessions are customised and hands-on.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do I need prior experience in credit risk?

No. We start from first principles and build everything step by step.

Which standard does the course follow?

Ind AS 109, aligned with IFRS 9. The logic applies globally, with Indian context.

Will I get recordings?

No. This is a live-only course. Active participation is a key part of learning. If you miss a session, you’ll get guidance to catch up.

What exactly will I build in Excel?

A complete ECL model covering:

  • PD (12-month and lifetime)

  • LGD with discounted recoveries

  • EAD evolution

  • Discounting and staging

  • Scenario-weighted ECL

Is this useful for interviews and job transitions?

Yes. Clear ECL understanding is highly valued in:

  • Credit and risk roles

  • Analytics and modelling teams

  • NBFCs, banks, fintechs

  • Consulting and audit

Will I get a certificate?

Yes. A simple digital certificate of completion will be provided.

How to Join

If you’re interested in the next cohort or 1-on-1 coaching, please share your details using the registration link.

For questions, write to:
hello@the-playbook.in

A Final Note

ECL is not difficult once the structure is clear.

This program is built to give you that clarity, so you can apply ECL confidently across products, portfolios, and roles.

If that’s what you’re looking for, I’d be happy to have you join.

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